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Lyft Beats Uber to First Ride-Hail IPO

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Adam Augusiak-Boro   March 28, 2019

Lyft, Inc.’s public debut will kick off one of the most highly-anticipated IPO seasons in recent memory. As companies stay private longer and the number of public companies in the U.S. remains at an all-time low, blockbuster IPOs like Lyft are an increasingly rare occurrence. We cover some of the reasons behind the fall in IPO activity in EquityZen’s 2019 IPO Outlook, which predicts that Lyft and 15 other companies, including its larger, global competitor Uber, will finally go public in 2019 and reignite what has been a largely muted IPO calendar over the last several years compared to previous bull markets. With Uber on its heels, Lyft is set to begin trading on March 29 at a fully-diluted valuation of around $25 billion (Lyft’s latest S-1 filing indicates a price range of $70 to $72 per share), allowing public investors access to Lyft’s stock for the first time in its history. Previously, investors looking to purchase Lyft shares had to participate in private financing rounds with high minimum investment thresholds or seek secondary offerings on pre-IPO trading platforms like EquityZen.


Now that we finally have access to Lyft’s full financial statements and management commentary within Lyft’s Form S-1, we have prepared the below mentioned report with our thoughts on the company’s total addressable market (TAM), path to profitability, comparable companies, and a number of growth levers and downside risks. As Lyft cements its IPO pricing post-roadshow, we expect that institutional investors have asked Lyft’s management many of the same questions that we cover below.

Sector Overview: Transportation-as-a-Service

Ride-hail companies like Lyft identify as multimodal transportation networks operating within the burgeoning Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) industry—also referred to as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS). TaaS describes a shift away from personally-owned modes of transportation and towards mobility solutions that are consumed as a service, often on-demand, and tailored to the individual needs of a traveler through a variety of transportation options, like ride-hailing and carpooling.


This industry, born in the wake of the Great Recession, was made possible by the mass adoption of smartphones, which for the first time allowed millions of drivers and riders to connect via ride-hailing apps. As the industry developed, several modes of transportation have been incorporated into TaaS networks, including:
  • Ride-hail: Ride-hailing is a service that connects riders with local drivers, giving riders a door-to-door transportation option. Example: Lyft’s core, on-demand ride-hail offering.
  • Carpool: Carpooling connects drivers with other passengers looking to travel to the same long-distance destination, sharing the cost of the journey between the driver and passengers. Example: Paris-based BlaBlaCar’s long-distance service.
  • Shared rides: Shared rides are the intersection of ride-hailing and carpooling, where riders traveling similar routes share a trip, often for short distances. Examples: Via, UberPool and Lyft’s Shared rides
  • Bikes and Scooters: Bike and scooter rentals provide consumers with a first- and last-mile option, giving riders the option to pick up and drop off these rentals anywhere they are available. Examples: Bike and/or scooter rentals are now offered by a number of companies, including Uber, Lyft, Lime and Bird.
  • Autonomous Vehicles: Autonomous vehicle (AV) rides are still in their infancy, but ride-hail companies like Lyft and Uber hope AVs will eventually provide all of the rides on their respective networks. Examples: In addition to Uber and Lyft, a number of diverse companies are chasing AV ambitions, including General Motors, BMW, Tesla, Apple and Waymo.
So how large is this TaaS market? And where does Lyft fit in? Download our report to dive in.
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EquityZen's 2018 Tech IPO Recap

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Adam Augusiak-Boro   January 17, 2019

2018 will be remembered as the year during which markets reached all-time highs (particularly tech stocks), and also as the worst year for stocks since the last financial crisis began in 2008. Last year we saw two American tech companies surpass $1 trillion in market cap—Apple and Amazon—only to proceed to lose over $300 billion in value each in a matter of months.




Despite a bit of a recovery at the end of the year, 2018 still finished with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower by 5.6%6.2% and 4%, respectively. Last year’s IPO market mimicked much of 2018’s volatility, with certain issuers weathering the storm and others bringing investors steep losses.

So how was 2018’s IPO performance? 

We break down last year’s tech IPOs below using information sourced from Crunchbase. Please note we excluded four issuers from our analysis that listed their shares through American depositary receipts (ADR).

Last year, nearly 45 tech companies debuted on U.S. exchanges, selling approximately $28 billion of company shares (note this includes Spotify’s direct listing, which resulted in over $9 billion going to prior Spotify shareholders instead of the company’s balance sheet). The average company raised nearly $650 million while the median amount raised was only $214 million, indicating there were a significant number of large IPOs.

So, which were the largest IPOs of 2018…


…and which sectors attracted the most public markets capital?


*Excludes Spotify’s direct listing
**Includes only 1 company in each of the following sectors: AdTech, Automotive, Car Sharing, Energy, Insurance, IoT, and Software Outsourcing

While Chinese and American companies dominated the IPO markets in 2018, with four companies each in the top 10 tech IPOs, Brazilian fintech company PagSeguro raised the most capital of any company. Although it didn’t actually raise any capital in its direct listing, Sweden’s Spotify sold by far the most equity, with existing shareholders dumping over $9 billion worth of stock onto the NYSE. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Media & Entertainment received the most public markets funding last year, even without counting Spotify’s IPO. Chinese music streaming giant Tencent Music raised over $1 billion in its IPO, while another Chinese entertainment company, IQIYI, raised $2.3 billion to support its television and movie portal. Closely following Media & Entertainment were the FinTech, SaaS and eCommerce sectors.

A lot of money was raised, but how have 2018’s IPOs performed? Some have performed quite well…

  
…others, not so much.


2018 brought a mixed bag for the markets overall, and much of the same can be said about the top tech IPO winners and losers. Several companies have continued to perform strongly, posting 20% - 40%+ gains through yesterday. Of the nearly 45 tech companies that went public last year, 19 have generated positive returns. That, of course, implies that the majority of 2018 tech IPOs continue to have negative performance, some as high as (50%+). On the bright side, so far in Q1 2019, almost 40 of these companies are in the black with an average YTD gain of approximately 15%.

So what will 2019 bring?

As we look ahead to 2019, we’re reminded that 2018 was a year much like any other in terms of investing performance.




Some investments have performed poorly while others have performed well. For example, while unicorn IPOs from ADT (down 43% from IPO) and Dropbox (down 22% from IPO) have been followed by less than stellar market performance, companies like Zscaler (up 34% from IPO) and Eventbrite (up 36% from IPO) continue to provide strong returns to investors. As far as recent market performance is concerned, only time will tell if we’re at the beginning of a sustained downturn—but until then, we’re trying not to let recent market volatility cloud the big picture. Many tech companies continue to perform strongly, and as we kick off 2019, we still expect some blockbuster tech IPOs this year. For our list of 2019’s IPO predictions, check out our IPO Outlook here.

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2019 IPO Outlook — A Bellwether Year for the New Tech Elite?

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Adam Augusiak-Boro   November 15, 2018

As the bull market charged into its ninth year in 2018, with the FAANG tech giants (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet’s Google) leading U.S. equities markets to record highs, many of us thought we would have seen stronger IPO activity. However, with under two months left of 2018 and despite favorable market conditions, this year’s U.S. IPO count is still nearly 100 IPOs lower than 2014’s total of 275 priced IPOs. At EquityZen, we continue to believe that IPO volume will remain subdued compared to prior bull markets given the secular trends we see in the U.S. capital markets.


Our team at EquityZen took a closer look at the companies we believe are primed to go public in 2019. To read our full 2019 IPO Outlook, please click here.
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